《俄羅斯報》網(wǎng)站12月7日刊載題為《2021年將會怎樣：四種情況》的文章，作者系俄羅斯科學(xué)院世界經(jīng)濟和國際關(guān)系研究所國際資本市場部主任雅科夫·米爾金，文章預(yù)測了2021年全球經(jīng)濟會出現(xiàn)的四種前景，并分析了2021年美元匯率的多種可能趨勢。全文摘編如下：

An article entitled "What Will Be In 2021: Four Situations" was published on the website of "Russia" on December 7th. The author is Yakov Mirkin, Director of the International Capital Markets Department of the Institute of World Economics and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. It predicts four prospects for the global economy in 2021, and analyzes a variety of possible trends in the US dollar exchange rate in 2021. The full text is excerpted as follows:

俄羅斯是開放的經(jīng)濟體，經(jīng)濟運行直接依賴于全球?qū)Χ碓牧系男枨蠛腿蚪鹑诜€(wěn)定。2021年將會怎樣？展望明年每個人都戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢。

Russia is an open economy, and its economic operation directly depends on the global demand for Russian raw materials and global financial stability. What will happen in 2021? Looking forward to next year, everyone is trembling.

2021年的前景將由疫情和經(jīng)濟周期決定。世界經(jīng)濟應(yīng)在2020年經(jīng)歷本輪周期的底部，并在2021年離開底部。

The outlook for 2021 will be determined by the epidemic and the economic cycle. The world economy should experience the bottom of this cycle in 2020 and leave the bottom in 2021.

可能出現(xiàn)四種情況。第一種情況（概率為45%至50%）：世界經(jīng)濟仍處于“蕭條”區(qū)間。俄羅斯的原材料銷售（的價格和數(shù)量）不太樂觀。七國集團（G7）國家的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）萎縮3%至5%，不過亞洲——尤其是中國——仍然維持經(jīng)濟增長。全球金融市場劇烈動蕩，股市和匯市以10%至20%的振幅頻繁波動。各國債務(wù)開始出現(xiàn)問題。G7國家的債務(wù)已超過其GDP的140%。俄羅斯的情況也不太好。

Four situations may occur. The first situation (with a probability of 45% to 50%): the world economy is still in the "depression" range. Raw material sales (price and quantity) in Russia are not very optimistic. The gross domestic product (GDP) of the Group of Seven (G7) countries has shrunk by 3% to 5%, but Asia-especially China-still maintains economic growth. The global financial market is volatile, and the stock and foreign exchange markets fluctuate frequently with an amplitude of 10% to 20%. The debts of various countries have begun to have problems. The debt of the G7 countries has exceeded 140% of their GDP. The situation in Russia is not very good either.

第二種情況（概率為15%至30%）：發(fā)生奇跡。世界經(jīng)濟呈現(xiàn)V形增長，金融市場大幅上漲，所有人都想要原材料。世界各國都在奇跡般地接種疫苗，疫情告一段落。國際貨幣基金組織欣喜地做出了這種預(yù)測，這也是他們希望的情況。全球GDP增速超過5%，發(fā)達(dá)國家經(jīng)濟增速為4%至6%，中國和印度增長最快，為8%至9%。而俄羅斯的日子過得也不錯，捷報頻傳。得抓緊買股票了，因為股市將出現(xiàn)暴漲！

The second case (probability is 15% to 30%): a miracle occurs. The world economy has shown a V-shaped growth, the financial market has risen sharply, and everyone wants raw materials. All countries in the world are miraculously vaccinated, and the epidemic is over. The International Monetary Fund happily made this prediction, which is what they hoped for. The global GDP growth rate exceeds 5%, the economic growth rate of developed countries is 4% to 6%, and China and India grow the fastest at 8% to 9%. Life in Russia is also going well, with good news coming. You have to hurry up to buy stocks, because the stock market will soar!

停停停！請別那么快！還有第三種情況（概率為20%至30%）：世界將重復(fù)2020年的情形。出現(xiàn)第三波大流行，各國政府試圖在犧牲人命和拯救經(jīng)濟之間找到折中道路，而且還不能輸?shù)舸筮x。發(fā)達(dá)國家GDP萎縮7%至10%。石油和天然氣的需求和價格都不見增長。俄羅斯經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)下滑，全國各地一片哀嚎。所有國家的貨幣和股票都陷入風(fēng)暴，跌幅達(dá)到20%至35%。生活如履薄冰，各種艱險層出不窮。人們會產(chǎn)生從2020年開始新紀(jì)年的想法。

Stop it! Please don't be so fast! There is a third case (20% to 30% probability): the world will repeat the situation in 2020. In the third wave of pandemic, governments of various countries are trying to find a compromise between sacrificing lives and saving the economy, and they cannot lose the election. The GDP of developed countries shrank by 7% to 10%. The demand and price of oil and natural gas have not increased. The Russian economy continues to decline, and there is a wailing all over the country. The currencies and stocks of all countries are caught in a storm, falling by 20% to 35%. Life is like walking on thin ice, with all kinds of difficulties and dangers emerging one after another. People will have the idea of ??starting a new year in 2020.

最后還有第四種情況（概率為5%）：冒出恐怖的“黑天鵝”。我們將遭遇某種全球性的新情況，并且最終開始相信氣候變化的瘋狂以及親愛的地球不再愛我們的事實。具體會發(fā)生什么情況我們也不知道。眾所周知，自上世紀(jì)80年代以來，造成系統(tǒng)性影響的災(zāi)難多次發(fā)生，頻率比過去增加了兩三倍。地緣政治和軍事風(fēng)險居高不下。這類不幸事件一旦發(fā)生，G7國家經(jīng)濟預(yù)計將萎縮10%至20%，金融市場將下跌30%至40%。我們擔(dān)心美國（股票）、G7（國債）、拉丁美洲以及其他新興市場的泡沫將發(fā)生破裂。先生，地震了！

Finally, there is a fourth situation (with a probability of 5%): a terrifying "black swan" emerges. We will encounter some kind of new global situation and finally begin to believe in the madness of climate change and the fact that dear earth no longer loves us. We don't know exactly what will happen. As we all know, since the 1980s, disasters causing systemic impact have occurred many times, and the frequency has increased two or three times compared with the past. Geopolitical and military risks remain high. Once such unfortunate events happen, the economies of G7 countries are expected to shrink by 10% to 20%, and financial markets will fall by 30% to 40%. We are worried that bubbles in the United States (stocks), G7 (national debt), Latin America and other emerging markets will burst. Sir, there is an earthquake!

在此之前我們怎么辦？回答是我們正在密切關(guān)注全球動態(tài)。

What shall we do before this? The answer is that we are paying close attention to global developments.

 

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