What is a procyclical plate? What is the pro cyclical investment logic?

 

1、順周期是和弱周期相對(duì)的一個(gè)詞，指的是跟隨經(jīng)濟(jì)周期一起同向波動(dòng)的那些板塊，比如銀行、煤炭、基建等等。

Procyclical is a term that is opposite to weak cycle. It refers to those sectors that fluctuate in the same direction following the economic cycle, such as banks, coal, infrastructure, etc.

2、當(dāng)下順周期的投資邏輯主要還是因?yàn)橐咔樗鶎?dǎo)致的，2020年這場(chǎng)新冠疫情對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)都造成了巨大的負(fù)面影響，各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)紛紛大幅下滑。

The current procyclical investment logic is mainly caused by the epidemic. The new crown epidemic in 2020 has caused a huge negative impact on the global economy, and the economies of various countries have fallen sharply.

3、而疫情控制后經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)將成為全球的首要任務(wù)，而這一目標(biāo)將主要通過(guò)大基建來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)，基建的復(fù)蘇又會(huì)帶動(dòng)上游資源比如銅鋁、鋼鐵、煤炭等等的需求，一環(huán)扣一環(huán)，之前受壓制的板塊會(huì)逐一爆發(fā)。

After the epidemic is controlled, economic recovery will become the world's top priority, and this goal will be achieved mainly through large infrastructure. The recovery of infrastructure will in turn drive the demand for upstream resources such as copper, aluminum, steel, coal, etc. First, the previously suppressed sectors will explode one by one.

4、其實(shí)之前大炒的汽車、家電以及地產(chǎn)后周期也屬于順周期方向，這個(gè)邏輯很早就開始動(dòng)了，現(xiàn)在只不過(guò)是傳遞到了更低估的資源類板塊。

In fact, the post-cycle of automobiles, home appliances, and real estate that were heavily speculated in the past also belong to the pro-cyclical direction. This logic started to move very early, but now it is only passed to the lower-valued resource sector.

5、但是需要注意，由于疫苗現(xiàn)在還未大規(guī)模使用，因此上述邏輯的演化存在一定的不確定性，不可盲目追高。

However, it should be noted that since vaccines have not yet been used on a large scale, there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the evolution of the above logic and cannot be blindly pursued.

 

Author: Tianshangren

From website: https://www.zhihu.com/